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The Paris Olympic cycle has come to an end and already the new cycle is upon us. The Los Angeles Games in 2028 may feel far removed right now but they will creep up sooner than most think and, as the first step on this road, the first World Cup races of the new quadrennial will take place this weekend. However, if the athletes thought they would be in for a gentle return, particularly those that competed in Paris, they may be in for a shock. After all, Karlovy Vary is famed for being one of the toughest courses on the World Cup circuit with a 1500m lake swim, a brutal 40km bike and then a testing 10km run to finish. Read on to find out some of the key names to watch in the women’s race and what the races of the past few years can tell us, and watch the race live on Sunday at 10:00 (CEST) on TriathlonLive.

Paris Olympians

Several 2024 Olympians will have their first taste of world level action since the big day in Paris. From this group, Bianca Seregni (ITA) wears number 1 in Karlovy Vary. Seregni was a triple World Cup winner in 2023, scored her first ever World Cup podium here with bronze in 2021, took silver in ‘22, and will look to add another victory to her collection this weekend. She will be joined by her fellow Italian Olympian, Verena Steinhauser.

WTCS race winner Maya Kingma (NED) will be another to watch. With her speed in the water and strength on the bike, the course should suit her perfectly. With the likes of Seregni in the field too, Kingma will also have the assistance at the front of the swim to break up the field. In addition, World Cup winner Petra Kurikova (CZE) will look to impress on home soil while Maria Tomé (POR) and Emy Legault (CAN) will likewise push to build upon their Paris showings with high finishes.

With medals ranging through the WTCS, World Cup and World U23 Championship levels, this group of Olympians has no shortage of credentials. The challenge facing them, though, may be psychological as they rouse themselves for their first race since the biggest event of the past Olympic cycle.

A point to prove

Conversely, there are several women that will have a point to prove after missing out on selection for Paris. Anabel Knoll (GER), a Tokyo Olympian, will look to showcase her abilities. Having finished in the top-8 at multiple WTCS races, she certainly has the ability to claim a high finish, although a recent COVID positive may push her out of the event.

World Cup medallists Romana Gajdošová (SVK) and Tereza Zimovjanova (CZE) were also close to making it to Paris. Both claimed maiden World Cup medals last season and so they could conceivably hit their best form again. Moreover, as with Kurikova, Zimovjanova will have the added boost of home support. Gina Sereno (USA) is another World Cup medallist not to be ignored and she finished 5th earlier in the summer in Huatulco. As a result, there will be numerous dangers to the Paris Olympians in the women’s race.

What the numbers say

Karlovy Vary has been a fixture on the World Cup circuit in recent times. Indeed, it was one of the few races to take place in the COVID-hit 2020 season. As such, there is plenty of recent data to delve into. One thing to note is the significance of the swim. In four of the six editions since 2018, the women’s winner has been among the top ten out of the water. Often, the women’s race has broken up on the bike and a fast swim has therefore put the winner either in the breakaway or close enough to bridge to it. Of course, a slightly slower swim will not necessarily end an athlete’s hopes, but in recent Karlovy Vary races it has tended to be a helpful feature of the winner’s performance.

Furthermore, recent races in Karlovy Vary have not been that close on the women’s side. Only two of the past half dozen races have been won by less than 20 seconds, of which one was Gwen Jorgensen’s victory from a slimmed-down lead pack last year. This is indicative that damage is generally done early in Karlovy Vary, for both the run and the race as a whole.

Finally, on the note of Jorgensen’s 2023 win, her overall time of 2:03:51 was the fastest by any woman from recent times. Considering her predecessors at the top of the Karlovy Vary podium were Leonie Periault, Julie Derron and Flora Duffy, it will be no mean feat for this year’s winner to get closer to the 2 hour mark.

Track all the action in Karlovy Vary on World Triathlon channels and catch the racing live this Sunday on TriathlonLive.